tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post7354933021835762874..comments2024-03-18T15:29:55.472-07:00Comments on Done by Forty: Linear Assumptions are BullshitDone By Fortyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06246597867355460723noreply@blogger.comBlogger51125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-53914963584976604962015-06-15T13:01:36.548-07:002015-06-15T13:01:36.548-07:00Wyoming...go figure. I never would have guessed.
...Wyoming...go figure. I never would have guessed.<br /><br />He's one of those guys who grew up in Southern CA so, tragically, everywhere else in the country seems impossible to move to. :) Done By Fortyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06246597867355460723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-34499452932433498132015-06-15T12:58:34.285-07:002015-06-15T12:58:34.285-07:00You're not alone. We all project the recent pa...You're not alone. We all project the recent past into the future.Done By Fortyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06246597867355460723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-34323457801360505322015-06-13T14:38:00.993-07:002015-06-13T14:38:00.993-07:00*rural not risk. Darn phone.*rural not risk. Darn phone.Femme Frugalityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07258982361804942329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-11245521590915625322015-06-13T14:36:42.053-07:002015-06-13T14:36:42.053-07:00I think he did, and it's interesting to think ...I think he did, and it's interesting to think about what adaptable will mean for our species looking forawrd. Will adaption to technology be important, or will it all collapse and only those who actually culturally still live off the land with minimum technological interaction have a hand up?<br /><br />Man, CA. From what I understand they're quite a few years ahead of us as far as the financial demise of public education. I know their pension system has taken quite the hit, at least, and those working and still funding it have taken the brunt of it. If you are reading, know you're not alone! Don't lose confidence over something outside your control. And if you're into risk settings at all, I hear Wyoming invests a ridiculous percentage of their budget into education.<br /><br />Of course I take board games too seriously. Because winning is awesome Femme Frugalityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07258982361804942329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-22319546573222693502015-06-12T16:39:48.041-07:002015-06-12T16:39:48.041-07:00I think you're right. Far too often do I thin...I think you're right. Far too often do I think I have everything figured out for the next 5-10 years. Anything can happen and I should take that into consideration when I'm making decisions about my finances.DC @ Young Adult Moneyhttp://www.youngadultmoney.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-77118405373991479002015-06-11T16:02:27.411-07:002015-06-11T16:02:27.411-07:00Hi there, Froogal Stoodent. Nice blog background c...Hi there, Froogal Stoodent. Nice blog background choice. :)<br /><br />I think we're all fairly bad at projecting future outcomes. It's one of those blind spots we have as humans: we think the very recent past is going to represent the future.<br /><br />But as you note, the best thing we can do is plan in some flexibility, and save while the getting's good.Done By Fortyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06246597867355460723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-18009754894603893752015-06-11T14:42:02.364-07:002015-06-11T14:42:02.364-07:00I'm glad you wrote this! So many of us (especi...I'm glad you wrote this! So many of us (especially in academia) make assumptions that, if you stop to think about them for even a few seconds, are absolutely silly! <br /><br />That's why it's wise to make a plan with some built-in flexibility. [That's also why it's wise to build up a significant nest egg as quickly as you can! :) ]Froogal Stoodenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14267987160931239460noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-88945435716817060482015-06-11T07:39:59.719-07:002015-06-11T07:39:59.719-07:00Board game nights are the best date nights. Unless...Board game nights are the best date nights. Unless you're like me and take them way too seriously.<br /><br />Great point on being adaptable. I remember some quote by Darwin saying that it wasn't the smartest or strongest who survived, but those who most easily adapted...or something like that.<br /><br />My friend was working in CA, though I'm sure their issues are similar. I used to work for the state of CA and, back in 09 when I left, the writing was on the wall with mandatory furloughs. <br /><br />Thanks for the kind words. I know he's reading the comments, and I know they'll help.Done By Fortyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06246597867355460723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-23270722894100331802015-06-11T07:37:42.888-07:002015-06-11T07:37:42.888-07:00Hi there, BrokeGirlRich. Honored to have one of th...Hi there, BrokeGirlRich. Honored to have one of the heavy hitters visit the blog, and glad it could put a smile on your face.Done By Fortyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06246597867355460723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-39502845897144357222015-06-11T07:35:49.216-07:002015-06-11T07:35:49.216-07:00Good point, Kayla. I probably come off as someone ...Good point, Kayla. I probably come off as someone who leaves a lot up to chance in this post. The truth is that I'm a control freak.<br /><br />Unfortunately, I realize over and over that there are a lot of limits to what I can control.Done By Fortyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06246597867355460723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-90365550888756506682015-06-11T07:34:57.151-07:002015-06-11T07:34:57.151-07:00True! Some cash definitely evens out those bad rol...True! Some cash definitely evens out those bad rolls.Done By Fortyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06246597867355460723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-48921798289115111942015-06-11T07:34:32.031-07:002015-06-11T07:34:32.031-07:00Yes, a meeple is necessary. It's a key part of...Yes, a meeple is necessary. It's a key part of any good board game.Done By Fortyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06246597867355460723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-23159257318827838352015-06-11T07:06:01.278-07:002015-06-11T07:06:01.278-07:00That's an interesting take on it. I'm not ...That's an interesting take on it. I'm not entirely sure I entirely agree that people tend to be static (staying screw ups or staying excellent). That seems to fit a (long term) linear view. But I hear what you're saying.<br /><br />Will have to head over to your blog and read some of your stuff. Thanks for stopping by, Retire29!Done By Fortyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06246597867355460723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-63871190874297554372015-06-10T20:09:04.857-07:002015-06-10T20:09:04.857-07:00Um, this is awesome. I have a totally dorky date n...Um, this is awesome. I have a totally dorky date night now. Thank you! Our minds would explode if we truly accepted how unpredictable life is. Being adaptable is one of the most important skills we can have in life in my humble opinion. Being emotionally adaptable and financially adaptable are two different things, though.<br /><br />I'm sorry to hear about your friend. Was he working in PA? We've had some major tumult here in the last few years with massive budget cuts, minor increases to pretend like the ex governor bolstered education spending, and now potential pension reform. It used to be a stable and great state to work in. My heart goes out to him.Femme Frugalityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07258982361804942329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-66598079915043523202015-06-10T19:56:25.550-07:002015-06-10T19:56:25.550-07:00Yes! All of life should be a 6 sided dice board ga...Yes! All of life should be a 6 sided dice board game!! Everything about this made me happy. Mel @ brokeGIRLrichhttp://brokegirlrich.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-50274190511619723782015-06-10T11:43:30.195-07:002015-06-10T11:43:30.195-07:00haha, what an interesting experiment to say the le...haha, what an interesting experiment to say the least. Life is definitely a game of chance. So much of what happens in life is uncontrollable, but even so I still want to take control of the things I can by paying off debt and building savings to prepare for life's unknowns.Kayla @ Femme Frugalityhttp://femmefrugality.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-7307007191249471822015-06-10T08:59:48.058-07:002015-06-10T08:59:48.058-07:00This post is so true. All financial planning is b...This post is so true. All financial planning is based upon a linear assumption. After 50 years if we look back on our financial progress in chart form it would look more like a series of waves. Definitely best to maintain a healthy emergency savings to help whether the storm and adjust your assumptions periodically as you plan for the future.Dane Hinsonhttp://www.financialtourguide.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-9845759298015462092015-06-09T11:45:04.964-07:002015-06-09T11:45:04.964-07:00Kids these days will refuse any game that doesn...Kids these days will refuse any game that doesn't have a spectacular figurine to move around the board - so maybe you can somehow incorporate Life and Monopoly in there... and a little Chutes and Ladders :)Steve@EscapeVelocity2020http://www.escapevelocity2020.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-66280097818791712342015-06-09T08:54:36.085-07:002015-06-09T08:54:36.085-07:00Very funny stuff! You're absolutely right. One...Very funny stuff! You're absolutely right. One begins to wonder, what's the point of planning, at all, when so much of it can be thrown right back in your face?<br /><br />I think that in most scenarios (dice throws) in the game of life, we will tend to revert to the mean. Lose a job, get a similar job. Have another kid, they share clothes. This is why screw-ups tend to stay screw-ups, and excellent people tend to stay excellent.Retire29http://www.retire29.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-56691004693739933912015-06-09T07:46:04.892-07:002015-06-09T07:46:04.892-07:00Hey Andrew. I kind of miss the stability of govern...Hey Andrew. I kind of miss the stability of government work. While there was not much incentive to work hard (given that you weren't going to be promoted or get a bigger raise as a result), the stability was unparalleled. With the union there, I rarely worried about losing my job the way I do in the private sector. And the benefits were so sweet: real HMOs, like grandpa used to tell us about.<br /><br />I've been kicking around ideas on how to blow this out to a real game (e.g. - cards for each number, so there'd be a lot of possible outcomes) and some sort of game choices between the drawing of numbers (so it's not pure luck determining your outcomes, but involves strategy and/or trading of numbers with other players).Done By Fortyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06246597867355460723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-72274881577922061582015-06-09T07:43:12.629-07:002015-06-09T07:43:12.629-07:00It will never be the year. The poor Cubs have the ...It will never be the year. The poor Cubs have the stink on them, and no amount of time will get them clean. :)Done By Fortyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06246597867355460723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-76203185422384138072015-06-09T07:42:38.229-07:002015-06-09T07:42:38.229-07:00You always think it'll be someone else who'...You always think it'll be someone else who'll be kidnapped and hunted like a dog in the Arizona desert...Done By Fortyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06246597867355460723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-31905219107528526732015-06-09T07:41:21.172-07:002015-06-09T07:41:21.172-07:00Yeah, the title was a stretch (it was originally &...Yeah, the title was a stretch (it was originally "Linear Assumptions are Wrong"). But whatever -- it's my blog and I'll pottymouth if I want to. :)<br /><br />I think there is a more sensible way to introduce random outcomes into your financial projections (e.g. - Monte Carlo analysis). But I have no such tools or knowledge, hence the dice. But, in general, I think we financial bloggers would do well to get away from simply assuming our investments will earn X, our salaries will rise up and to the right...Done By Fortyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06246597867355460723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-81825100139863351802015-06-09T07:39:18.477-07:002015-06-09T07:39:18.477-07:00Thanks for the encouragement. As always, things wi...Thanks for the encouragement. As always, things will work out. It's America!<br /><br />Obamacare is a really interesting program as it relates to early retirement. Our income certainly will drop, so on paper we might truly seem like good candidates for some assistance.<br /><br />I've also heard from other bloggers (Holly at Club Thrifty for example) that Obamacare has drastically increased her insurance costs. My gut says it's location dependent (e.g. - are you in an area where one plan or one hospital dominates coverage in a near-monopoly).Done By Fortyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06246597867355460723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2980246226076317453.post-79410515412253868362015-06-09T07:37:19.888-07:002015-06-09T07:37:19.888-07:00Yeah, charisma was always the odd characteristic. ...Yeah, charisma was always the odd characteristic. At least the way we played, there weren't too many opportunities to win over other characters. :)Done By Fortyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06246597867355460723noreply@blogger.com